Our main article for this quarter is suggesting a very optimistic outlook for our investment style. As the article discusses, there are favorable trends and there are things that could happen to disrupt those trends. A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted “some good news” in areas that are more commonly treated as problem areas.[1] World population increased by 70 million in 2023, adding to available human capital with consequences for increases in family, relationships, friendships, innovation and prosperity. The global economy, mainly due to the use of fossil fuels, grew 3% in 2023 and is expected to grow almost as much in 2024, with consequences for reducing poverty, increasing available health care and more opportunities for “personal growth.”

How many investors reading their asset statement in mid-October of 2022 would have believed that 50% percent appreciation in the S&P 500 was possible over the next two years? Our statement reader had just absorbed a 25% meltdown in the S&P 500 over the previous ten months and was being bombarded by negativity on many fronts. One “talking head” after another tried to outdo the other with a bearish economic forecast or a dire outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. But since October 13, 2022, the S&P 500 has risen from 3,492 to 5,261—up 50.7% on an intraday basis. It has been a nice, nearly two-year upcycle but additional upside potential awaits. This article discusses the reasons for such optimism.

We suppose that there is now a consensus that the “largest corporate tax reduction in the history of the United States” in 2017 was a big success. “The results of the Trump corporate tax reform were more business investment, more growth, more wages for workers, and little impact on government revenue as lower corporate rates were offset by an expanding economy.

What’s the current state of the US private equity market? “Sustained higher interest rates, inflation…damped deal and exit activity” in 2023.  Exits have been extended for years. “The growing need for liquidity options will likely drive an explosion in continuation funds that provide cash-out opportunities and secondary sales by fund investors.” The investment community’s hope is that individual investors will step in to help.

Remarkably, the economy has continued to grow at a healthy pace even as inflation has come down. The Fed’s 5.25 percentage point increase in the federal funds rate over the last two years has had surprisingly little effect on either consumer spending or the job market. US real GDP grew 2.5% in 2023, a much stronger level than previously expected.

A report coming from the Joint Committee on Taxation for a hearing before the Senate Committee on Finance probably should be a warning that certain tax planning techniques may be in for some increased regulation.

Are portfolio manager fees “the only reliable predictor of performance”? “The lower the fees, the higher the returns realized by investors.”[1] It depends. In a pooled investment vehicle, where the client is merely a creditor of the real owner of the investment, perhaps. For separately managed accounts made up mostly of individual common stocks, probably not. The difference between an active management fee of 100 basis points on a $1 million account and an average 35-basis-point fee for most passive investment vehicles is substantial. Some passive vehicles have lower fees and some predict we will see 10-basis-point fees or lower as investment firms race to lower fees.

Although high inflation, high interest rates and incessant recession predictions have cast a shadow over the economy the past year, a sudden increase in innovation has provided some much-needed hope and a glimpse into a brighter future. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence and weight-loss pharmaceuticals threaten to shake up their respective industries. While the major players—Microsoft, Alphabet and Eli Lilly—will all likely benefit, these innovations will also provide an opportunity for new, smaller companies that can lead across these technological changes.

The quick rule of thumb about what the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is likely to want to look at or to audit, if so inclined, is the current year plus the prior three years. These are called the “open years.” If fraud may be involved, it is the current year plus six prior years. The timing schedule is called the statute of limitations. It is meant to help compliant taxpayers trying to do the right thing from being subject to audit beyond a reasonable period, hence three open years. However, if items are omitted from a filed return, making the return “false, fraudulent or otherwise represents a willful attempt to defeat or evade tax, the statute of limitations doesn’t start running.”[1] These rules apply to taxes due, interest and penalties.

Woodstock uses pooled investment vehicles for client cash, so we’re watching money market funds. We’re interested to see that of all the categories of investments in the endowment model, private equity seems to be taking an outsized share. And we like to tell Woodstock’s story.